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| Phoenix Market Update June 2010 |
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It is currently a Buyers market.
There are 41,515 homes currently on the market.
They are taking 95 days to sell on average.
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| My Market Analysis: |
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I'm starting to sound like a broken record....
....because the market has been just as active as ever. What can I say? People seem to know a good value when they see it.
Investor activity is still very strong, with 20,270 homes currently under contract at this writing.
This will be the final month for Federal Tax Credit closings, which had to be under contract by April 30th, and will have to close by June 30th. So, we may see a flurry of closings the last week of the month. Title companies and lenders must be feeling the crunch, having to make that Deadline…with $8,000 on the line for these buyers.
Will the numbers fall off the cliff in July? We shall see…
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Here are the numbers.....
Inventory - - Month Supply - - Closings - - Avg Sale Price - - LP/SP % - - Day on Market
May: 41,515 - - 4.56 - - 9,107 - - $176,978 - - 96.3- - 95
Apr: 42,707 - - 4.59- - 9,300 - - $170,971 - - 96.4 - - 97
Mar: 43,454 - - 4.83- - 9,002 - - $177,776 - - 96.3 - - 101
Feb: 42,923 - - 6.47- - 6,631 - - $173,654 - - 95.7 - - 99
Jan: 41,535 - - 7.15 - - 5,811 - - $175,737 - - 95.5 - - 91
Dec: 40,602 - - 5.25 - - 7,731 - - $176,822 - - 96.2 - - 93
Nov: 40,081 - - 5.31 - - 7,563 - - $174,395 - - 97.0 - - 89
Oct: 39,116 - - 4.80 - - 8,150 - - $170,315 - - 97.2 - - 90
Sep: 38,541 - - 4.85 - - 7,942 - - $174,975 - - 97.0 - - 93
Aug: 37,972 - - 4.72 - - 8,042 - - $175,441 - - 99.7 - - 100
July: 38,307 - - 4.21 - - 9,098 - - $175,400 - - 96.3 - - 111
June: 39,557 - - 4.25 - - 9,299 - - $171,194 - - 96.3 - - 116
May: 42,376 - - 4.59 - - 9,224 - - $163,323 - - 95.6 - - 120
(All Data provided by Arizona Regional MLS)
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All downhill from here?
Sitting here watching the market every day, and listening to the news reports every day, it’s hard to be optimistic about pricing and values. This is good news for all of you buyers, but bad news for current homeowners.
So much focus has been placed on the “sub-prime” loans and the default rates leading to many foreclosures…but is anyone paying attention to the recent trend of homeowners just deciding to stop paying their mortgages? Last month, this was a featured story on 60 Minutes and I have seen 2-3 articles written about the same subject in the past 2 weeks.
Here is the most recent from the NY times last week….
http://www.newsgeni.us/articles/243/Growing_Number_of_Homeowners_Stop_Paying_Mortgages.html
So, if people who are “underwater” on their home values, continue to just say “The heck with it” and stop paying their mortgages, how can the tide of foreclosures ever decrease? And if the tide of foreclosures doesn’t subside, how can values stay at their current levels?
As we all know, the law of supply and demand will continue to draw pricing downward…As I touched on last month, this will be felt mostly in the higher price points, which have further to fall…I feel this summer is going to show us which direction the Phoenix Metro market will be heading for the next 12-18 months.
The Bulls say that sunshine, incredibly low housing costs, low interest rates, and strong investor and second home buyer market will be the engines that continue to drive this train forward.
The Bears say that the Post Federal Tax credit hangover is coming, the supply of investors will dwindle, and with the banks still holding tight to their money, prices will continue downward…Oh, and don’t forget inflation…
What do you believe?
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Well, the Canadian Dollar took a big hit in May, mostly due to the uncertainty in Europe with the Greek crisis 2-3 weeks ago. However, it has been gaining ground in June, as the US dollar continues to flounder….. Again, the Canadian Dollar should remain relatively strong through the rest of the year...
http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/graph30.html
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110 degrees today…anybody interested in coming down for a shopping spree?
Summer has traditionally been a great time to pick up bargains here in the Valley of Dry Heat...
If you are thinking of coming this Summer, please reply back to this email and I will update you with the latest list of homes to view.
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