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| Phoenix Market Update July 2010
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It is currently a Buyers market.
There are 41814 homes currently on the market.
They are taking 98 days to sell on average. |
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| My Market Analysis: |
The Federal Tax Credit extension passed… in the nick of time.
The Senate passed the Federal tax credit extension, giving people who already have homes under contract, an extra 90 days to close on those homes, in order to receive their Tax Credit.
So, we shall see if the recent activity this Spring was simply Fed stimulus, or will closings fall of the cliff for Aug/Sep...?
I'm dubious, with the Banks keeping a tight reign on their money, and a sharp pencil to those appraisals...I fear a second bottom is coming, and there's not much that we can do about it....
Winter home buyers and investors should be very happy.
So, Most of you know me as an optimist.
Long term, I'm thoroughly bullish on Phoenix/Scottsdale...how can you not be? The sunshine will always bring bones for thawing.....And it's nowhere near an oil slick beach...(sorry Florida)
However, in the short term, there is still more pain for Arizona homeowners. There has to be....
As we see, the numbers may indeed be showing that the Fed Tax credit has been fueling activity...As of this writing, there are only 17,892 homes under contract...The lowest number since January...And despite small fluctuations, pricing has stayed flat since June of 09.
We'll see what July numbers look like in August.
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Here are the numbers.....
Inventory - - Month Supply - - Closings - - Avg Sale Price - - LP/SP % - - Day on Market
June: 41,814 - - 4.50 - - 9,297 - - $179,993 - - 96.1- - 98
May: 41,515 - - 4.56 - - 9,107 - - $176,978 - - 96.3- - 95
Apr: 42,707 - - 4.59- - 9,300 - - $170,971 - - 96.4 - - 97
Mar: 43,454 - - 4.83- - 9,002 - - $177,776 - - 96.3 - - 101
Feb: 42,923 - - 6.47- - 6,631 - - $173,654 - - 95.7 - - 99
Jan: 41,535 - - 7.15 - - 5,811 - - $175,737 - - 95.5 - - 91
Dec: 40,602 - - 5.25 - - 7,731 - - $176,822 - - 96.2 - - 93
Nov: 40,081 - - 5.31 - - 7,563 - - $174,395 - - 97.0 - - 89
Oct: 39,116 - - 4.80 - - 8,150 - - $170,315 - - 97.2 - - 90
Sep: 38,541 - - 4.85 - - 7,942 - - $174,975 - - 97.0 - - 93
Aug: 37,972 - - 4.72 - - 8,042 - - $175,441 - - 99.7 - - 100
July: 38,307 - - 4.21 - - 9,098 - - $175,400 - - 96.3 - - 111
June: 39,557 - - 4.25 - - 9,299 - - $171,194 - - 96.3 - - 116
May: 42,376 - - 4.59 - - 9,224 - - $163,323 - - 95.6 - - 120
(All Data provided by Arizona Regional MLS)
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Anti-deficiency laws may be fueling the downward spiral.
Only 6 states in the nation have an anti-deficiency statute, which in essence denies a creditor the right to come after homeowners who default on their primary residences. So, would you be more inclined to walk away from your upside down house, if you knew the bank couldn’t sue you for the difference on what they sell it for vs. what you owe? Seems tempting doesn’t it? Well, as they reported on 60 Minutes 2 months ago, that is exactly what more and more Arizonans are doing…. How can that help to stem the tide of foreclosures?
If the banks REALLY wanted to fix this problem, then Modifications and Short Sales are not the way to go. Principal reductions would be a win-win-win. Homeowners would keep their homes, banks would keep the loan (even if it a smaller amount), and the foreclosures would slow down and the housing market would recover quicker…
Seems simple, doesn’t it?
However, in my experience, the words "simple" and "banks" don’t show up in the same sentence very often.
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Well, the Canadian Dollar has been gaining steadily since it’s May 25th bottom…Today, it is at 96 cents, and all indicators point to par in the near future. Barring any unusual crisis this Summer, conditions remain ripe for our buyers to the North..
http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/graph30.html
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110 degrees today…anybody interested in coming down for a shopping spree?
Summer has traditionally been a great time to pick up bargains here in the Valley of Dry Heat...
If you are thinking of coming this Summer, please reply back to this email and I will update you with the latest list of homes to view.
If you know anyone who wants to be kept up to date with the Phoenix market, please forward along this article.
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