For February, 2012
- Risk On! For 2012.
- Market stays hot, as pending transactions shoot up!
- Inventory still shrinking (17,289)
- AVG Sale price up again in January and almost 9% since August.
- Trends: Mid range pricing still creeping upward…(100-300K)
- Trends: Distress properties still shrinking, just over 50% of market
- WHY?
- Sellers feeling more confident, so more traditional listings/sales.
- Interest rates are phenomenal ( +/- 4% for 30 yr fixed)
- Investors still seeing 6-9% CAP rates
- Rental market still hot. 50% Saturation.
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Let’s look at the numbers from December to January
Inventory – - Month Supply – - Closings – - Avg Sale Price – - LP/SP % – - Days on Market
Jan: 17,289 – - 3.91 – - 6,643 – - $164,067- – 96.6 – - 90
Dec: 18,531 – - 3.36 – - 7,813 – - $162,304 – - 96.2 – - 94
Nov: 19,293 – - 3.76 – - 7,245 – - $160,310 – - 96.8 – - 88
Oct: 19,777 – - 3.59- – 7,598 – - $153,504 – - 96.7 – - 92
Sep: 19,615 – - 3.35 – - 8,095 – - $152,692 – - 96.8 – - 93
Aug: 19,549 – - 3.15 – - 8,805 – - $151,309 – - 96.8 – - 98
July: 19,942 – - 3.39 – - 8,557- – $154,184 – - 96.7 – - 97
June: 21,323 – - 2.87 – - 10,940 – - $159,216 – - 96.2 – - 104
May: 23,145 – - 3.35 – - 9,906 – - $158,208 – - 96.1 – - 104
Apr: 26,290 – - 3.87 – - 9,477 – - $160,209 – - 95.7 – - 106
Mar: 29,522 – - 3.96 – - 10,006 – - $157,646- – 95.1 – - 113
Feb: 42,120 – - 5.85 – - 7,201 – - $155,280 – - 95.3 – - 115
Jan: 43,458 – - 6.57- – 6,610 – - $156,239 – - 95.1 – - 112
(All Data provided by Arizona Regional MLS)
For January, 2012
- Market stays hot through the Holidays. Closings up (7800)
- Pending contracts are Down (16,700)…but just because of Holidays?
- Inventory still Shrinking (18,400)…Month Supply Down (3.32)
- Prices still rising (162K)… 7% since August.
- Will history show that August 2011 was “The Bottom”?
- New Inventory still shrinking (7300)….41% in last 12 months.
- Bank Closings are down
- Short Sale closings are up
- Traditional Sales are Up
- Winding down this whole mess?
Let’s look at the numbers from November to December
Inventory – - Month Supply – - Closings – - Avg Sale Price – - LP/SP % – - Days on Market
Dec: 18,531 – - 3.36 – - 7,813 – - $162,304 – - 96.2 – - 94
Nov: 19,293 – - 3.76 – - 7,245 – - $160,310 – - 96.8 – - 88
Oct: 19,777 – - 3.59- – 7,598 – - $153,504 – - 96.7 – - 92
Sep: 19,615 – - 3.35 – - 8,095 – - $152,692 – - 96.8 – - 93
Aug: 19,549 – - 3.15 – - 8,805 – - $151,309 – - 96.8 – - 98
July: 19,942 – - 3.39 – - 8,557- – $154,184 – - 96.7 – - 97
June: 21,323 – - 2.87 – - 10,940 – - $159,216 – - 96.2 – - 104
May: 23,145 – - 3.35 – - 9,906 – - $158,208 – - 96.1 – - 104
Apr: 26,290 – - 3.87 – - 9,477 – - $160,209 – - 95.7 – - 106
Mar: 29,522 – - 3.96 – - 10,006 – - $157,646- – 95.1 – - 113
Feb: 42,120 – - 5.85 – - 7,201 – - $155,280 – - 95.3 – - 115
Jan: 43,458 – - 6.57- – 6,610 – - $156,239 – - 95.1 – - 112
Dec: 44,936 – - 5.34 – - 8,318 – - $160,774- – 94.4 – - 123
(All Data provided by Arizona Regional MLS)
For December, 2011
Let’s look at the numbers from October to November
New Inventory is DOWN 12%.
Overall Inventory is DOWN 2%
Month Supply is slightly UP
Pending Sales have DECREASED…..from 18,179 to 17,807 units, 30 days ago
Closings were DOWN: 5%
AVG Sales Price was UP 4%
Inventory – - Month Supply – - Closings – - Avg Sale Price – - LP/SP % – - Day on Market
Nov: 19,293 – - 3.76 – - 7,245 – - $160,310 – - 96.8 – - 88
Oct: 19,777 – - 3.59- – 7,598 – - $153,504 – - 96.7 – - 92
Sep: 19,615 – - 3.35 – - 8,095 – - $152,692 – - 96.8 – - 93
Aug: 19,549 – - 3.15 – - 8,805 – - $151,309 – - 96.8 – - 98
July: 19,942 – - 3.39 – - 8,557- – $154,184 – - 96.7 – - 97
June: 21,323 – - 2.87 – - 10,940 – - $159,216 – - 96.2 – - 104
May: 23,145 – - 3.35 – - 9,906 – - $158,208 – - 96.1 – - 104
Apr: 26,290 – - 3.87 – - 9,477 – - $160,209 – - 95.7 – - 106
Mar: 29,522 – - 3.96 – - 10,006 – - $157,646- – 95.1 – - 113
Feb: 42,120 – - 5.85 – - 7,201 – - $155,280 – - 95.3 – - 115
Jan: 43,458 – - 6.57- – 6,610 – - $156,239 – - 95.1 – - 112
Dec: 44,936 – - 5.34 – - 8,318 – - $160,774- – 94.4 – - 123
Nov: 46,353 – - 6.83 – - 6,786 – - $158,477 – - 95.7 – - 115
(All Data provided by Arizona Regional MLS)
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BIG Jump in Traditional Sales! Foreclosures continue to drop…
For the second month in a row, Traditional sales have increased and Foreclosures have declined a full 5% MoM…
26% are Bank Owned Foreclosures
27% are Short Sales
47% are “traditional” sales. (42% of the market in October)
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Mid-level pricing continues to rise…
More homes sold in the 300-500K range…less lower priced homes sold last month.
Here is a break down of percentages by price range
41% are under $99,999
48% are from $100,000-299,000
8% are from $300,000-499,000
3% are OVER $500,000.
The Higher End Luxury Market: Homes closing in the 1 Million+ range were 59, UP from 51… The highest sale in September was a 4.4 Million “AUCTION” Sale in Paradise Valley ($456/sqft)….
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Planning to come visit the desert this winter and look at some properties; give us a call 1-888-844-0001 or drop us an email. If we haven’t already done so, we will set you up to have automatic updated listings sent to your email inbox…this way, you can view the most current listings on this quick moving market…
John
Sharon
Melanie
For November, 2011
Let’s look at the numbers from September to October
NEW Inventory stayed the Same.
Overall Inventory is slightly higher.
Month Supply is slightly higher.
Pending Sales have increased…..from 18,729 to 18,179 units, 30 days ago
Closings were DOWN: 6%
AVG Sales Price was UP: fractional
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Inventory – – Month Supply – – Closings – – Avg Sale Price – – LP/SP % – – Day on Market
Oct: 19,777 – – 3.59- – 7,598 – – $153,504 – – 96.7 – – 118
Sep: 19,615 – – 3.35 – – 8,095 – – $152,692 – – 96.8 – – 118
Aug: 19,549 – – 3.15 – – 8,805 – – $151,309 – – 96.8 – – 119
July: 19,942 – – 3.39 – – 8,557- – $154,184 – – 96.7 – – 118
June: 21,323 – – 2.87 – – 10,940 – – $159,216 – – 96.2 – – 115
May: 23,145 – – 3.35 – – 9,906 – – $158,208 – – 96.1 – – 114
Apr: 26,290 – – 3.87 – – 9,477 – – $160,209 – – 95.7 – – 116
Mar: 29,522 – – 3.96 – – 10,006 – – $157,646- – 95.1 – – 123
Feb: 42,120 – – 5.85 – – 7,201 – – $155,280 – – 95.3 – – 120
Jan: 43,458 – – 6.57- – 6,610 – – $156,239 – – 95.1 – – 122
Dec: 44,936 – – 5.34 – – 8,318 – – $160,774- – 94.4 – – 123
Nov: 46,353 – – 6.83 – – 6,786 – – $158,477 – – 95.7 – – 115
Oct: 46,116 – – 6.99 – – 6,598 – – $163,222 – – 95.4 – – 114
(All Data provided by Arizona Regional MLS)
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Distress sales continue to drop…Traditional Sales growing.
I have many clients ask me just how many bank homes there are for sale…?
Well here is a percentage breakdown of the types of homes in today’s market.
31% are Bank Owned Foreclosures
25% are Short Sales
44% are “traditional” sales. (42% of the market in September)
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As a percentage of the market, mid-level price ranges creeping upward….
It looks like more buyers and investors are buying in the 200-500 price point. I believe this is because investors are seeing good rental returns on more expensive homes, as rental rates continue to rise.
Here is a break down of percentages by price range
43% are under $99,999
48% are from $100,000-299,000
6% are from $300,000-499,000
3% are OVER $500,000.
The Higher End Luxury Market: Homes closing in the 1 Million+ range were 51, UP from 47… The highest sale in September was a 4.4 Million “Traditional” sale in Desert Mountain ($540/sqft)….
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Planning to come visit the desert this winter and look at some properties?
If you are coming in this winter to look at properties, please give us a call at: 1-888-844-0001 or drop us an email…if we haven’t already done so, we will set you up to have automatic updated listings sent to your email inbox…this way, you can view the most current listings on this quick moving market…
For October, 2011
Inventory down, but so is pricing… Why is the Phoenix market defying the laws of supply and demand?
For the past 6 months the Arizona Home Group has been telling you that our market is one of the hottest in the country. We have set record level sales in the months of March, June, and August of this year. Investor activity is still at an all-time high as people try to cash in on the low prices and the strong rental market. Even with the snowbirds gone, our inventory has dropped from 40,000 homes to under 20,000 as of today. Yet, at the same time, the average home price in Phoenix has dropped 4% over the same time period…Why is this?
Well, in my opinion, this can probably be attributed to 3 main reasons: Appraisals, wholesale pricing, and consumer confidence..
APPRAISALS: In today’s market of uncertainty, the appraisers are much more cautious than they were back in the boom days. Indeed, appraisers were considered a large part of the problem with soaring house values from 2003-2007. As a consequence, you are seeing much more conservative appraisals coming in today. This is also in part because there is simply not that much inventory to use as “comparables.” In some neighborhoods up to 80% of the homes are foreclosures, so what else can an appraiser use?
WHOLESALE PRICING: The other part of this equation is a continued oversupply of foreclosures flooding the market at auctions, and then the MLS at 15-25% off Retail pricing. In short, the banks are still unloading houses at bulk pricing, which continues to devalue the overall market. Until the banks stop foreclosing, it’s hard to see how prices will stabilize. And this of course leads to part 3.
LACK OF CONFIDENCE: I have read reports that say that there are many “everyday” buyers willing and able to purchase homes right now, but they are simply watching and waiting. This may be the case for you as well. It’s a vicious cycle that keeps feeding itself. Until buyers start to see some stabilization in the market, they will not jump in. However, if these traditional buyers do not start buying, the recovery will be much slower.
So, what does it all mean?
It is virtually impossible to catch the market bottom…in any market: real estate, equities, and even bonds and commodities. Is your portfolio filled with stocks you bought at the bottom? In reality, prices have dropped 60% on average from where we were when all of this began. We have basically retreated back to 2002 pricing. If you see something you like, you should move on it, like many of my clients have done this year. In the end, you are more than likely “long” on Phoenix and 5-7 years from now you will certainly have experienced a nice lift, especially if we are helping you make an educated choice!! People will always want to live in Phoenix, either full-time or part-time. Sunshine never goes out of fashion. It’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity we find ourselves in, and we are here to help you make a smart investment. Continue reading….
For September, 2011
Market still strong, but seems to have stabilized slightly in August…
And by this, I mean that inventory has stopped shrinking! We are still hovering just over 19,300 homes for sale, which is where we were 30 days ago…but we saw an increase in NEW Inventory of over 700 units last month, so this is good……Perhaps the banks are getting more efficient in their foreclosure process….??
In addition, it looks like the number of transactions in Escrow has slowed as well, dropping below the 20,000 we had at the start August. For the those of us just joining our list, the numbers I quote of for the MLS that serves the entire Phoenix Metro area! In a normal market our inventory is around 42,000 homes….
Or perhaps it’s because August was too bloody hot to Shop for homes! After all, it was the hottest August on RECORD, so you can’t blame anyone for not venturing out to look for properties. Lets see how this August slowdown in opened escrows translates into actual closings in September. Continue reading….
