Arizona Home Group

You’ll find our blog to be a wealth of information, covering everything from local market statistics and home values to community happenings. That’s because we care about the community and want to help you find your place in it. Please reach out if you have any questions at all. We’d love to talk with you!

Sept. 30, 2022

Builder confidence falls for ninth consecutive month

Source: Atlanta Agent Magazine | John Yellig

Builder confidence fell for the ninth month in a row in September, hitting its lowest level since May 2014, the National Association Home Builders reported, citing a continuing combination of increased interest rates, building-material supply chain disruptions and high home prices.  

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slid three points to 46. Any reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good.  

“Builder sentiment has declined every month in 2022, and the housing recession shows no signs of abating as builders continue to grapple with elevated construction costs and an aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve that helped pushed mortgage rates above 6% last week, the highest level since 2008,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in a news release. “In this soft market, more than half of the builders in our survey reported using incentives to bolster sales, including mortgage rate buydowns, free amenities and price reductions.” 

The component measuring buyer traffic fell one point to 31. 

“Buyer traffic is weak in many markets as more consumers remain on the sidelines due to high mortgage rates and home prices that are putting a new home purchase out of financial reach for many households,” NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter said. “In another indicator of a weakening market, 24% of builders reported reducing home prices, up from 19% last month.” 

Current sales conditions dropped three points to 54, and sales expectations for the next six months dipped one point to 46.  

Regionally, the three-month moving average of the index fell in all geographic regions, led by the West, with a 10-point decline to 41 and followed by the South with a seven-point drop to 56, and the Northeast and Midwest, with five-point declines to 52 and 44, respectively.  

The NAHB/Wells Fargo survey measures builder perceptions of current single-family home sales, as well as sales expectations for the next six months, as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” The results are then used to calculate the seasonally adjusted index.  

 

Posted in Market Updates
Sept. 29, 2022

Phoenix homebuyers face less competition but are backing out of more deals, report finds

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Jeff Gifford

The Phoenix metro housing market is seeing some of the nation’s highest number of homebuyers backing out of deals, along with one of the biggest declines in bidding wars, according to research from real estate platform Redfin (Nasdaq: RDFN).

The findings come in two different reports from Redfin revealing more evidence of the cooling housing market amid rising interest rates and high inflation.

In one analysis of MLS data released Sept. 26, Redfin found that 21.6% of buyers in the Phoenix-area market called off deals in August, which was the sixth-highest rate out of the top 50 U.S. markets.

Phoenix wasn’t alone among Sun Belt cities, which claimed the top 15 spots on the list, with the top 10 all seeing rates higher than 20%. The national average of buyers backing out of contracts was 15.5%, which is roughly the rate seen over the past three months, Redfin said. A year ago, the rate was at 12.1% nationally.

“House hunters today are taking their time and exploring their options, whereas six months ago, they had to act quickly and pull out every stop to compete because homes were selling almost immediately,” said Tzahi Arbeli, a Redfin real estate agent in Las Vegas, in Redfin’s report. “Homebuyers now will agree to buy a house and be doing the inspection, and then back out because they found another home they love more.”

The analysis said buyers these days may have more flexibility to back out because as the market slows they don’t have to waive contract contingencies in order to compete with other buyers, as they did last year.

That hearkens to the findings in Redfin’s other recent report, which showed a slowdown in competition among buyers in Phoenix and across the nation.

In the Valley, 26.4% of homebuyer offers written by Redfin agents faced competition, which was just a slight dip from July’s 26.9% rate but was less than half the 57.9% rate from a year earlier.

Bidding wars have been declining nationwide for seven straight months, Redfin said, following general trends of the cooling market. Nationwide in August, 44.6% of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition, which was down from 63.5% a year earlier.

Looking at reasons

In both reports, Redfin pointed to surging mortgage rates, finding that the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate was at 6.29% a week ago, the highest level since 2008. That means buyers are facing monthly mortgage payments that are 45% higher than a year ago, Redfin said.

In the bidding war report, Redfin also pointed to persistent inflation and a slumping stock market affecting buyers’ choices.

“And some prospective buyers have decided not to purchase a home because they’re worried home values will fall,” that report said.

When it comes to the rate of buyers quitting deals, Phoenix was surpassed only by Las Vegas (23%), Atlanta (22.6%), Orlando (21.9%) and Fort Lauderdale (21.7%).

As for diminished bidding wars, only San Antonio, at 21.7%, Tampa (23.8%) and Olympia, Wash. (24.2%) had lower rates of competition than Phoenix in Redfin’s August survey.

Posted in Market Updates
Sept. 29, 2022

Work gets underway on $446M project to improve Interstate 17 north of Phoenix

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Jeff Gifford

Work on the first phase of a major $446 million improvement project along Interstate 17 north of Phoenix is now underway, and drivers will soon start to see changes along the freeway — the primary link between the Valley and northern Arizona communities.

The Arizona Department of Transportation said this week that the work zone is being established along the 23-mile corridor between Anthem way and Sunset Point to the north. The project, which will continue for about three years, includes 15 miles of widening from Anthem Way to Black Canyon City and the addition of about eight miles of flex lanes from Black Canyon City to Sunset Point.

The thoroughfare has been subject to increasing congestion over the years as more drivers travel between central Arizona and northern communities such as Prescott, Sedona and Flagstaff. The stretch of highway being improved can sometimes see more than 50,000 drivers a day, ADOT has said.

“I want all drivers to be aware that ADOT is adding lanes to improve safety and reduce driver frustration by relieving the congestion the current configuration causes,” said ADOT Director John Halikowski in a statement. “Although there will be additional lanes, it is up to drivers to behave responsibly, operate their vehicles according to the law and, above all, be patient and courteous with each other. Let's get everyone safely home.”

Most construction on weeknights

Some construction will happen during daytime hours, officials said, but lane closures will only happen during off-peak travel times, either northbound or southbound, depending on the day of the week, ADOT said. Also, most of the lane closures will be on weeknights from 7 p.m. to 6 a.m., with none scheduled on weekends and holidays, when the freeway is most heavily traveled.

Existing travel lanes will be shifted to accommodate the construction zone.

The initial work includes guardrail repairs, equipment mobilization and work zone preparations inside and outside existing lanes. Preparations are expected to take about six weeks and will also include such things as wildlife surveys, spraying for noxious and invasive weeks, clearing vegetation and salvaging viable native plants, cacti and trees, ADOT said.

Contract negotiations on the project started in September 2021, and in October of that year ADOT signed a $446 million deal with a joint venture — made up of Phoenix-based Kiewit Infrastructure West Co. and Prescott-based Fann Contracting Inc. — to do the work on the I-17 project.

Gov. Doug Ducey earlier in 2021 had set aside $40 million in funding for the project, citing surplus revenue as a result of the state’s strong economic recovery and federal Covid-19 relief funds.

Federal, state money in the mix

Additional funding sources for the project include $130 million of state highway funds appropriated by the Legislature in 2019, $90 million from an Infrastructure for Rebuilding America grant, $50 million from the Maricopa Association of Governments for the Maricopa County portion of the project, and $52.3 million from federal aid with matching state highway funds.

In the end, the work is expected to reduce slowdowns and backups that can occur when traffic is heavy or when accidents can block the road and there are no alternative routes nearby.

The flex lane system, which will be built next to the southbound lanes through a steep and winding section of freeway, will be separated from regular lanes by a barrier and will be controlled by gates that allow use for one direction of traffic at a time depending on greatest need. On Fridays, for instance, northbound lanes tend to be heaviest, and on Sundays the pattern reverses with southbound traffic tending to dominate.

The flex lanes will also be open for blocked traffic when regular lanes are blocked by accidents or other incidents, ADOT said. Flex lanes will be in use seven days a week, and overhead message signs will alert drivers about which direction is in use at a given time, ADOT said.

“The I-17 Improvement Project is an important investment in Arizona’s transportation infrastructure," Ducey said in a statement. “All who travel I-17 regularly for weekend trips and daily commutes will benefit, including commercial truckers who use this Key Commerce Corridor to haul goods and services throughout our state. This project is critical for Arizona drivers and our state’s economy.”

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Gov. Doug Ducey earlier in 2021 had set aside $40 million in funding for the project, citing surplus revenue as a result of the state’s strong economic recovery and federal Covid-19 relief funds.

Federal, state money in the mix

Additional funding sources for the project include $130 million of state highway funds appropriated by the Legislature in 2019, $90 million from an Infrastructure for Rebuilding America grant, $50 million from the Maricopa Association of Governments for the Maricopa County portion of the project, and $52.3 million from federal aid with matching state highway funds.

In the end, the work is expected to reduce slowdowns and backups that can occur when traffic is heavy or when accidents can block the road and there are no alternative routes nearby.

The flex lane system, which will be built next to the southbound lanes through a steep and winding section of freeway, will be separated from regular lanes by a barrier and will be controlled by gates that allow use for one direction of traffic at a time depending on greatest need. On Fridays, for instance, northbound lanes tend to be heaviest, and on Sundays the pattern reverses with southbound traffic tending to dominate.

The flex lanes will also be open for blocked traffic when regular lanes are blocked by accidents or other incidents, ADOT said. Flex lanes will be in use seven days a week, and overhead message signs will alert drivers about which direction is in use at a given time, ADOT said.

“The I-17 Improvement Project is an important investment in Arizona’s transportation infrastructure," Ducey said in a statement. “All who travel I-17 regularly for weekend trips and daily commutes will benefit, including commercial truckers who use this Key Commerce Corridor to haul goods and services throughout our state. This project is critical for Arizona drivers and our state’s economy.”

Posted in Lifestyle
Sept. 20, 2022

Most-Productive Phoenix-Area Residential Real Estate Teams

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Dale Brown

 

Surveyed list assembled with the help of residential real estate brokerages. Information points include 2021 total dollar volume ($50M minimum), number of transaction sides, most expensive home sold, team leader, team website and email.

 

RANK TEAM / 2021 RANK
WEBSITE
ADDRESS
PHONE

# OF TRANSACTION SIDES MOST EXPENSIVE HOME SOLD IN 2021 # OF LICENSED AGENTS ON TEAM TEAM LEADER(S)
TEAM E-MAIL
1
JASON MITCHELL GROUP – JASON MITCHELL REAL ESTATE1
mitchellgroupaz.com
3080 Civic Center Plaza#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-522-1030
 
4,981
$6.2
million
405
Jason Mitchell
missioncontrol@jasonmitchellgroup.com
2
TERESA HAGUE TEAM – 72SOLD/HAGUE PARTNERS3
72sold.com
7333 E. Doubletree Ranch Rd.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85258
480-998-9900
 
4,034
$5.6
million
355
Teresa Hague
teresa@haguepartners.com
3
SILVERLEAF GROUP – SILVERLEAF REALTY5
silverleaf.com/silverleaf
18801 N. Thompson Peak Rd.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-571-3977
 
289
$21
million
23
Mike Sweeney
info@silverleafrealty.com
4
THE LAUGHTON TEAM – MY HOME GROUP2
laughtonteam.com
8631 W. Union Hills Dr.#201
PeoriaAZ 85382
623-256-6510
 
2,149
$10
million
153
George Laughton
george@laughtonteam.com
5
SIBBACH TEAM - EXP REALTY6
sibbach.com
14301 N. 87th St.#215
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
480-500-1738
 
747
$3.54
million
75
Jeff Sibbach
info@sibbach.com
6
THE KYPREOS TEAM – HOMESMART29
homesmart.com
10601 N. Hayden Rd.#I-100
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
702-234-7736
 
902
$615,000
2
Cheryl Kypreos
ckypreos@hsmove.com
7
KP ELITE REAL ESTATE TEAM - EXP REALTY
thekpelite.com
2301 S. Stearman Dr.
ChandlerAZ 85286
480-487-4878
 
748
$1.45
million
75
Peter KamboukosKeith Anderson
offers@kpeliteaz.com
8
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY11
privateclientgroupagents.com
6900 E. Camelback Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
844-724-8080
 
227
$9.5
million
13
Frank Aazami
frank@pcgagents.com
9
LUXURY PROPERTY GROUP - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY14
lpg-3.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-585-7070
 
130
$7.14
million
4
Will FooteDeborah NegrinJay Pennypacker
lpg@russlyon.com
10
THE JOFFE GROUP – LAUNCH REAL ESTATE9
thejoffegroup.com
4167 N. Marshall Way
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-989-8300
 
135
$14
million
5
Robert Joffe
robert@thejoffegroup.com
11
POWER OF 4 - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY13
desertmountainhomeexperts.com
37700 N. Desert Mountain Pkwy.
ScottsdaleAZ 85262
602-708-7300
 
123
$10.5
million
4
Anne MorrisseyKathleen BenoitKaren BaldwinBee Francis
powerof4@russlyon.com
12
THE SIXTO GROUP – REALTY ONE GROUP46
sixtosellshomes.com
7975 N. Hayden Rd.#A101
ScottsdaleAZ 85258
480-440-9409
 
558
$510,000
7
Sixto Aspeitia
sixtosells@gmail.com
13
THE VALLEY SOLUTIONS REAL ESTATE TEAM – HOMESMART23
notyourtypicalteam.com
1839 S. Alma School Rd.#141
MesaAZ 85210
480-415-5930
 
476
$2.9
million
85
David DionJulie Tate
dave@valleysolutionsteam.com
14
KLAUS TEAM - KELLER WILLIAMS INTEGRITY FIRST REALTY16
klausteam.com
2919 S. Ellsworth Rd.#133
MesaAZ 85212
480-354-7344
 
478
$2.5
million
14
Kenny Klaus
kenny@klausteam.com
15
WGO GROUP – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY
theokeefegroup.com
37700 N. Desert Mountain Pkwy.
ScottsdaleAZ 85262
480-488-5718
 
110
$9.5
million
4
Dan WolskiTroy GillenwaterJohn "Jack" O'Keefe
info@theokeefegroup.com
16
THE CARIN NGUYEN REAL ESTATE NETWORK - REAL BROKER LLC21
azhomesold.com
4840 N. Litchfield Rd.#101
Litchfield ParkAZ 85340
602-832-7005
 
487
$2.2
million
22
Carin NguyenSon Nguyen
sales@azhomesold.com
17
REVISTO REAL ESTATE GROUP - MY HOME GROUP18
soldbyrevisto.com
15282 W. Brookside Ln.#119
SurpriseAZ 85374
602-626-8050
 
542
n/a
n/a
Joshua Smith
Joshua@revistorealestate.com
18
THE WALT DANLEY GROUP - WALT DANLEY CHRISTIE'S INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE7
waltdanley.com
6720 N. Scottsdale Rd.#140
Paradise ValleyAZ 85253
480-991-2050
 
76
$10
million
8
Walt DanleyDub Dellis
info@waltdanley.com
19
KEITH MISHKIN - CAMBRIDGE PROPERTIES15
cambridgeproperties.com
14602 N. Tatum Blvd.
PhoenixAZ 85032
602-493-5100
 
181
$5.35
million
9
Keith Mishkin
keith@cambridgeproperties.com
20
RTT HOME GROUP - RE/MAX FINE PROPERTIES8
agentabove.com
21020 N. Pima Rd.
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
602-762-7653
 
266
$2.73
million
n/a
David Tucker
david@agentabove.com
21
LEGACY REAL ESTATE TEAM – MY HOME GROUP27
legacyrealestateteam.com
2425 S. Stearman Dr.#114
ChandlerAZ 85286
480-291-4478
 
444
n/a
n/a
Tyler Blair
office@legacyrealestateteam.com
22
THE WILLIAMS TEAM - REALTY EXECUTIVES PHOENIX17
realtyexecutives.com
1929 N. Woodruff
MesaAZ 85207
480-641-1800
 
230
$1.93
million
12
Eric Williams
ericwilliams58@gmail.com
23
BTG REAL ESTATE – MY HOME GROUP22
btgrealestate.com
55 N. Arizona Pl.#104
ChandlerAZ 85225
480-788-1245
 
407
n/a
46
Brandon Tracy
clientservices@btgrealestate.com
24
THE ENVISION TEAM - MY HOME GROUP26
greaterphoenixhomelistings.com
1343 E. University Dr.
TempeAZ 85281
480-485-3555
 
372
n/a
54
Ben Arredondo
ben@theenvisionteam.com
25
THE MATHESON TEAM - RE/MAX FINE PROPERTIES25
scottsdalerealestate.com
21020 N. Pima Rd.
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
602-899-5583
 
140
$5.45
million
9
Don Matheson
don@scottsdalerealestate.com
26
ACQUIRE SFR – MY HOME GROUP
acquiresfr.com
   
338
$3.4
million
n/a
Tom Storey
info@acquiresfr.com
27
PR PARTNERS - LAUNCH REAL ESTATE63
prpscottsdaleluxuryrealestate.com
8711 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#D-110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-535-6648
 
112
$14.5
million
3
Julie Pelle
info@prpartnersaz.com
28
PELLEGRINI & DEGEORGE PARTNERS – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY28
85268.com
16872 E. Avenue of the Fountains#103
Fountain HillsAZ 85268
480-315-1575
 
127
$3.4
million
3
Susan PellegriniKaren DeGeorge
info@85268.com
29
THE LUCKYS – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY32
lisalucky.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-585-7070
 
95
$4.1
million
5
Lisa Lucky
lucky@russlyon.com
30
THE MOJO TEAM – REALTY ONE GROUP47
mojoscottsdale.com
7975 N. Hayden Rd.#A101
ScottsdaleAZ 85258
480-356-5657
 
124
$12
million
40
Morgan HodgesJosh Hintzen
team@mojoscottsdale.com
31
THE SERTICH GROUP - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY53
scottsdaleluxurygroup.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-447-7877
 
76
$3.25
million
5
Nancy Sertich
nancy.sertich@russlyon.com
32
THE PANOZZO TEAM – HOMESMART36
thepanozzoteam.com
8388 E. Hartford Dr.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-307-8326
 
213
$4.5
million
16
Kim Panozzo
kim@thepanozzoteam.com
33
THE HAMBLEN TEAM - REALTY ONE GROUP35
hamblenteam.com
8514 W. Deer Valley Rd.#110
PeoriaAZ 85382
602-536-7718
 
304
$939,000
19
Adam Hamblen
hamblenteam@gmail.com
34
THE MORRISON TEAM – RETSY39
morrisonteam.com
7316 E. 6th Ave.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-456-0065
 
148
$4.5
million
7
Chris Morrison
chris@retsy.com
35
ROCO LUXURY HOMES – RETSY
rocoluxuryhomes.com
7316 E. 6th Ave.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-652-2625
 
43
$10.1
million
3
Libby CohenJulie RohrPolly Wintergalen
roco@retsy.com
36
BUDWIG TEAM – REALTY ONE GROUP42
budwigteam.com
7975 N. Hayden Rd.#A-101
ScottsdaleAZ 85258
480-256-8322
 
163
$4.65
million
13
Herb BudwigJonathan Budwig
marketing@budwig.com
37
THE TEAM – RETSY19
theteam4resultsaz.com
7316 E. 6th Ave.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-598-1779
 
70
$6.65
million
6
Lara BroadrickRebecca ClaytonShawna Warner
theteam@retsy.com
38
GABEL PHILLIPS GROUP – RETSY37
gabelphillipsgroup.com
7316 E. 6th Ave.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-708-4050
 
98
$7.32
million
6
Babbi GabelAngela PhillipsMary Grassl
contact@gabelphillipsgroup.com
39
K&M MARKET INVESTMENTS – MY HOME GROUP
homesalesdoneright.com
8360 E. Raintree Dr.#120
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
623-703-8001
 
268
n/a
n/a
Kristy Martinez
kristymartinezaz@gmail.com
40
THE KAY-GRANT GROUP – MY HOME GROUP77
kay-grant.com
8111 E. Thomas Rd.#124
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-387-3990
 
205
n/a
18
Andrea Lilienfeld
andrea@kay-grant.com
41
DARWIN WALL TEAM - REALTY ONE GROUP51
darwinwallteam.com
287 E. Frye Rd.
ChandlerAZ 85225
480-726-2100
 
153
$5.96
million
14
Darwin Wall
dwall@darwinwall.com
42
TEAM SANTISTEVAN - BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES ARIZONA PROPERTIES49
thesantistevangroup.com
15215 S. 48th St.#183
PhoenixAZ 85044
480-933-7094
 
200
$3.49
million
12
Mary Jo SantistevanMike Santistevan
maryjos@cox.net
43
THE CHANDLER OCOTILLO GROUP - BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES ARIZONA PROPERTIES30
integrityallstars.com
4981 S. Arizona Ave.#1
ChandlerAZ 85248
480-243-4242
 
216
$1.4
million
10
Rebecca Hildalgo RainsJames Rains
team@integrityallstars.com
44
THE STUDEBAKER GROUP – NORTH&CO.54
thestudebakergroup.com
15551 N. Greenway Hayden Loop#210
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
602-763-1138
 
129
$2.5
million
18
Allen Studebaker
allen@ssgroupaz.com
45
RO LUXURY GROUP – NORTH&CO.12
roluxurygroup.com
5635 E. Thomas Rd.
PhoenixAZ 85018
602-380-8735
 
85
$4
million
9
Robin Orscheln
robin@roluxurygroup.com
46
THE CICERO GROUP – WEST USA REALTY
carloscicero.thecicerogroupaz.com
1850 E. Northrop Blvd.#170
ChandlerAZ 85286
480-695-3930
 
227
$1.82
million
41
Carlos Cicero
carloscicero77@gmail.com
47
THE ELLENS TEAM – MY HOME GROUP50
premiumazhomes.com
8360 E. Raintree Dr.
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
602-824-2196
 
195
$3.5
million
17
Torie Ellens
dallas@theellensteam.com
48
MAX AND PATRICK – AMERICA ONE LUXURY REAL ESTATE65
maxandpatrick.com
6900 E. Camelback Rd.#860
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-907-9660
 
54
$5.01
million
2
Patrick NiederdrenkMaximilian de Melo
max@americaonerealestate.com
49
MONIQUE WALKER TEAM - RE/MAX EXCALIBUR REALTY
moniquesells.com
8510 E. Shea Blvd.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
602-413-8195
 
199
$1.8
million
7
Monique Walker
monique@moniquesells.com
50
VAN PATTEN LUXURY GROUP – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY
vanpattenluxurygroup.com
20909 N. 90th Pl.#209
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-202-2413
 
21
$21.5
million
3
Barry Van Patten
barry.vanpatten@russlyon.com
51
NATE MARTINEZ - RE/MAX PROFESSIONALS
nateshomes.com
20249 N 67th Ave#1
GlendaleAZ 85308
602-430-5226
 
150
$2.29
million
6
Nate Martinez
natem@remax.net
52
JASON CRITTENDEN TEAM – REALTY ONE GROUP58
theagentthatcares.com
3530 S. Val Vista Dr.#114
GilbertAZ 85297
480-999-9209
 
186
$1.64
million
7
Jason Crittenden
jasonc@theagentthatcares.com
53
ZABEL GROUP – REALTY ONE GROUP64
zabelrealestate.com
2950 N. Litchfield Rd.
GoodyearAZ 85395
623-203-0968
 
173
$4.33
million
7
Brian Zebel
brian@zabelrealestate.com
54
CALZA COMPANY – MY HOME GROUP59
calzaco.com
6751 N. Sunset Blvd.#320
GlendaleAZ 85305
623-242-2900
 
244
n/a
9
Julie Calza
rankup@calzaco.com
55
AGENT COLLECTIVE - REALTY ONE GROUP41
searchallarizonahouses.com
2141 E. Broadway Rd.#101
TempeAZ 85282
602-600-6500
 
177
$2.83
million
15
Geoff Adams
geoff@agentcollective.com
56
MISTER ROGERS HOMES TEAM - WEST USA REALTY55
misterrogershomes.com
1640 S. Stapley Dr.#124
MesaAZ 85204
480-313-7031
 
339
$2.33
million
27
Shawn Rogers
misterrogershomes@hotmail.com
57
THE CONDO MANIA TEAM – HOMESMART
phoenixcondomania.com/index.php
10601 N. Hayden Rd.#I-100
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
623-986-4200
 
168
$4.47
million
14
Elizabeth Suto
liz@scottsdalecondomania.com
58
COPPER 48 REAL ESTATE TEAM – MY HOME GROUP117
thecopper48.com
110 S. Priest Dr.#101
TempeAZ 85281
480-334-7062
 
190
n/a
3
Mike Mazzucco
team@thecopper48.com
59
THE BONNIE BURKE TEAM – RE/MAX FINE PROPERTIES92
bonnieburke.com
21020 N. Pima Rd.
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-720-8001
 
138
$5.6
million
6
Bonnie Burke
bonnie@bonnieburke.com
60
THE RECON GROUP – WEST USA REALTY
azrecongroup.com
2355 W. Utopia Rd.
PhoenixAZ 85027
602-718-3561
 
350
$1.6
million
37
Mike WeinsteinRyan Gerdes
mike@azrecongroup.com
61
THE JONNY WEST TEAM – KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY PHOENIX
jonnywestre.com
3920 S. Rural Rd.#110
TempeAZ 85282
602-741-6394
 
136
$1.82
million
6
Eric Brossart
eric@jonnywestrealestate.com
62
THE MARSHALL BROTHERS – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY52
desertmountainhomesandlots.com
37700 N. Desert Mountain Pkwy.
ScottsdaleAZ 85262
602-882-2112
 
40
$4.9
million
2
Kirk MarshallKeith Marshall
kirk.marshall@russlyon.com
63
BUSHONG, CHRISTIAN & ALMQUIST – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY40
russlyon.com
6990 E. Camelback Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-287-5200
 
49
$5.25
million
3
Joe BushongChad ChristianGrant Almquist
joe.bushong@russlyon.com
64
THE DAVIS DRIVER GROUP – RE/MAX FINE PROPERTIES66
davisdriver.com
21020 N. Pima Rd.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
602-399-0116
 
48
$4.85
million
6
Davis DriverAnn Driver
davis@davisdriver.com
65
AZ GOOD LIFE TEAM – REALTY ONE GROUP
correahomes.com
3530 S. Val Vista Rd.#114
GilbertAZ 85297
480-227-4878
 
148
$1.74
million
9
Debbie Correa
debbie@correahomes.com
66
CASHMAN PARTNERS - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY114
cashmanpartners.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
602-339-2680
 
54
$4.2
million
3
Sally CashmanKathleen Prokopow
sally.cashman@russlyon.com
67
THE SZABO GROUP - RE/MAX FINE PROPERTIES
scottsdalerealestateteam.com
21000 N. Pima Rd.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-688-2020
 
79
$4.58
million
6
Joe Szabo
joe@azluxuryhomes.com
68
LEADING LUXURY EXPERTS – KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY SONORAN LIVING
leadingluxuryexperts.com
15905 S. 46th St.#160
PhoenixAZ 85048
602-369-1085
 
74
$3
million
9
Bonny Holland
bonnie@leadingluxuryexperts.com
69
THE KOLANDERS – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL
kolanders.com
37700 N. Desert Mountain Pkwy.
ScottsdaleAZ 85262
480-980-4073
 
34
$5.35
million
2
James Kolander
james.kolander@russlyon.com
70
THE CANIGLIA GROUP – NORTH&CO.62
thecanigliagroup.com
7878 N. 16th St.
PhoenixAZ 85020
602-903-7220
 
95
$2.2
million
5
Shelley CanigliaSteve Caniglia
steve@thecanigliagroup.com
71
YOUNG HOME TEAM – EXP REALTY178
homesinsunlakes.com
10325 E. Riggs Rd.#110
Sun LakesAZ 85248
480-802-3857
133
$1.05
million
6
Charlee YoungTerry Young
younghometeam@gmail.com
72
THE RUSSELL SHAW GROUP - REALTY ONE GROUP48
nohasslelisting.com
11211 N. Tatum Blvd.#100
PhoenixAZ 85028
602-957-7777
165
$2.3
million
6
Russell Shaw
russell@nohasslelisting.com
73
SELVEY GROUP - RE/MAX EXCALIBUR REALTY
arizonabuildersales.com
8510 Shea Blvd.#100
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
480-254-6444
175
$1.8
million
8
Dean Selvey
dean@deanselvey.com
74
BARRAZA TEAM - MY HOME GROUP72
barrazateam.com
3233 W. Peoria Ave.#202
PhoenixAZ 85029
602-441-3702
205
n/a
2
Daniel Barraza
azrealtorteam@gmail.com
75
THE RIDDLE GROUP BROKERED BY EXP REALTY73
theriddlegroup.com
20860 N. Tatum Blvd.#300
PhoenixAZ 85050
480-502-0505
117
$1.8
million
18
Kodi Riddle
kodi@TheRiddleGroup.com
76
GILLETTE GROUP – LAUNCH REAL ESTATE104
gillettegroupaz.com
4167 N. Marshall Way
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-518-6885
100
$3
million
7
Shannon Gillette
shannon@gillette-group.com
77
THE GLIMCHER TEAM – LAUNCH REAL ESTATE90
theglimcherteam.com
4207 N. Scottsdale Rd.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-695-8196
117
$1.48
million
3
Jason Glimcher
jason@theglimcherteam.com
78
TEAM LEHMAN AZ - REALTY ONE GROUP76
tlazre.com
3530 S. Val Vista Dr.#114
GilbertAZ 85297
480-351-0407
 
138
$714,068
7
Drew Lehman
info@teamlehmanaz.com
79
THE STEADFAST TEAM – REALTY ONE GROUP82
3530 S. Val Vista Dr.#114
GilbertAZ 85297
602-725-0604
127
$2.5
million
9
Max DeWitt
steadfast.realtyone@gmail.com
80
SMITH TEAM – RETSY296
smithphx.com
7316 E. 6th Ave.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-459-7111
48
$3.7
million
7
Alex Smith
alex@smithphx.com
81
S4 REAL ESTATE GROUP – KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY SONORAN LIVING69
s4grouprealestate.com
7141 E. Main St.
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-725-2609
143
$1.25
million
16
Jenny McCallKevin Craig
kevin.craig@s4realestate.com
82
EXCLUSIVE AGENT TEAM – HOMESMART61
homesmart.com
9110 W. Vernon Ave.
PhoenixAZ 85037
623-986-4200
231
$584,900
9
John Tamayo
johndt88@hotmail.com
83
WENDY WALKER FINE PROPERTIES – THE AGENCY ARIZONA38
wendywalkerfineproperties.com
7001 N. Scottsdale Rd.#1040
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
602-888-4162
51
$4.13
million
3
Wendy Walker
wendy.walker@theagencyre.com
84
MYRIAD – MY HOME GROUP83
myriadaz.com
2600 N. Central Ave.#725
PhoenixAZ 85004
480-648-9234
130
n/a
4
Daniel Brown
info@myriadaz.com
85
THE BLIKRE TEAM – MY HOME GROUP
myhomegroup.com
8360 E. Raintree Dr.
ScottsdaleAZ 85260
602-300-4626
153
n/a
n/a
Jaime Blikre
86
YONKER GROUP – LAUNCH REAL ESTATE98
yonkergroup.com
2633 E. Indian School Rd.#240
PhoenixAZ 85016
602-638-6813
51
$5.61
million
5
Dan Yonker
info@yonkerconstructionaz.com
87
THE TEAM WITH MORE - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY
teamwithmore.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
602-980-2243
31
$4.45
million
2
Tracey GrayKim Leinweber
more@russlyon.com
88
THE ARIZONA HOME GROUP – KELLER WILLIAMS REALTY SONORAN LIVING57
arizonahomegroup.com
5301 N. Pima Rd.#130
ScottsdaleAZ 850250
602-571-3730
 
100
$1.75
million
12
John A. Sposato
john@arizonahomegroup.com
89
THE PRUITT TEAM – WEST USA REALTY
thepruittteam.com
16150 N. Arrowhead Fountain Center Dr.#100
PeoriaAZ 85382
602-942-1410
468
$3.6
million
10
David Pruitt
info@thepruittteam.com
90
REEDS & VANDI – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY87
reedsandvandi.com
37700 N. Desert Mountain Pkwy.
ScottsdaleAZ 85262
480-760-1001
34
$4.9
million
3
Kathy ReedHugh ReedStacey Vandivert
stacey.vandivert@russlyon.com
91
REZAMP – REALTY EXECUTIVES PHOENIX122
rezampwholesale.com
500 W. Chandler Blvd.
ChandlerAZ 85225
480-704-4671
194
$2.12
million
6
Brandon Hunt
brandonhunt@realtyexecutives.com
92
THE BEHIE TEAM – REALTY EXECUTIVES PHOENIX86
thebehieteam.com
16150 N. Arrowhead Fountains Center Dr.
PeoriaAZ 85382
602-319-8868
44
$1.6
million
8
Lenny Behie
lbehie82@gmail.com
93
HOUSED.COM REAL ESTATE GROUP – NORTH&CO.
housed.com
25 S. Arizona Place#325
ChandlerAZ 85225
602-581-7005
94
$1.75
million
7
Michael D'Elena
hello@housed.com
94
REISDORF, METZ & PARTNERS - RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY70
reisdorfmetzpartners.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-797-4977
51
$3.13
million
4
Kathy ReisdorfCindy Metz
cindy.metz@russlyon..com
95
TEAM TLC REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS – REALTY ONE GROUP71
tlcrealestatepros.com
7975 N. Hayden Rd.#A-101
ScottsdaleAZ 85258
480-215-1105
92
$2
million
7
Tiffany Carlson-Richison
tiffany@tiffanytherealtor.com
96
AGENTY CRE
agentycre.com
2705 S. Alma School Rd.
Chandler AZ 85249
480-567-2121
45
$1.75
million
1
Shamile Botzman
Shamile@agentycre.com
97
THE MACDONALD TEAM – RUSS LYON SOTHEBY'S INTERNATIONAL REALTY
foreazhomes.com
7669 E. Pinnacle Peak Rd.#110
ScottsdaleAZ 85255
480-220-9724
30
$5.58
million
2
Allan MacDonald
allan.macdonald@russlyon.com
98
BARKAN GROUP – LAUNCH REAL ESTATE
barkangroups.com
4167 N. Marshall Way
ScottsdaleAZ 85251
480-273-7138
74
$4.5
million
8
Elliot BarkanCorinne Barkan
99
PHIL TIBI GROUP – NORTH&CO.
philbitigroup.com
2 Biltmore Estates
PhoenixAZ 85018
602-692-0780
93
$2.15
million
13
Phil Biti
phil@thebitigroup.com
100
R3HOMEGROUP
r3homegroup.com
6170 W. Chandler Blvd.#14
ChandlerAZ 85226
520-265-6841
49
$1.2
million
17
Paul EideJoel GoldsmithJeff Cayton
paul@phoenixhomerealtor.com
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Posted in Market Updates
Sept. 20, 2022

Median days on the market increases in Phoenix and nationwide

Source: Phoenix Agent Magazine | Patrick Regan

Homebuyers nationwide had more time to make decisions in August with the first year-over-year increase in median days on the market since June 2020.

Median days on the market increased by five days to 42 in August compared to the same month last year, according to the Realtor.com Monthly Housing Trends Report.

In the Phoenix area, median days on the market increased by eight to 38. The median listing price rose 5.3% year over year to $500,000. Active listings increased a staggering 177.4% and new listings dropped 6.4%.

Among the top 50 metro areas, Phoenix had the greatest share of listed homes with a price reduction, at 42.7%.

Nationally, the median listing price rose 14.3% to $435,000. That’s down from the record-high median pricing of $450,000 in June. Nationally, active listings increased 26.6% year over year and new listings were down 13.4%.

“These trends reflect a housing market that is getting a refresh from the past two-plus years of frenzied buyer demand that outmatched supply, with inventory rising and more typical seasonality expected to return in the fall,” the Realtor.com report said. “It’s a long road to balance, with homes still selling more quickly than prior to COVID. However, relative to the market’s recent peak, August’s milestone shift in time on market trends is a step toward offering buyers relief from the relentless rush for homes.”

Posted in Market Updates
Sept. 19, 2022

Lawsuit alleges tech on Zillow website amounts to ‘wiretapping’

Source: The Seattle Times | Heidi Groover

A tracking tool used on Zillow’s website violates the privacy rights of the tens of thousands of prospective homebuyers and sellers who use the site, a new lawsuit alleges.

The complaint filed Monday in federal court challenges Seattle-based Zillow’s use of session-replay code, a common technology that allows websites to record and replay users’ interactions with the site to learn how they use it. 

The technology amounts to the “electronic equivalent of ‘looking over the shoulder’ of each visitor to the Zillow website for the entire duration of their website interaction,” the complaint said. Many users are likely unaware the replay exists, according to the suit, which likens the practice to wiretapping. 

The suit alleges Zillow uses Microsoft’s session-replay technology known as Clarity and names both companies. 

Neither company commented on the substance of the allegations Tuesday. Microsoft spokesperson David Cuddy said the company was “looking into this closely.”

Zillow is “currently reviewing” the suit, spokesperson Will Lemke said. “Zillow takes the privacy and security of users’ information very seriously. We are transparent with our users through our privacy policy, which explains to users the types of information we collect as they use our apps and websites.”

The Seattle attorneys who filed the case did not respond to an interview request. 

The filing this week is one of a handful of similar cases across the country. Several cases in Pennsylvania challenged the software used by Zillow, Lowe’s and Expedia, Bloomberg Law reported. Another recent case in California named Old Navy

Last year, dozens of similar cases were filed with mixed results, according to Kristin Bryan, an attorney who works in Cleveland and New York and has represented companies defending against similar lawsuits. (Bryan declined to speak specifically about the latest case filed against Zillow and Microsoft.) 

“Privacy and cybersecurity [are] a top-of-mind issue right now,” Bryan said.

The Washington case, filed on behalf of two Zillow users from South Carolina and Pennsylvania, alleges the practice violates Washington wiretapping law and “constitutes an invasion of the privacy rights of website visitors.” 

State law prohibits intercepting or recording private communications without permission from the participants, except in certain emergency situations. 

According to the complaint, the session-replay code used on Zillow’s site can capture mouse movements, clicks, zooms and keystrokes, as well as information about properties users view, personal information users enter to schedule a tour and which pages they view.

“Website visitors reasonably expect that their interactions with a website should not be released to third parties unless explicitly stated,” the filing said.

Cases challenging session-replay code typically revolve around whether website users sufficiently consented to the replay technology in a website’s terms of use and whether state wiretapping laws should cover online activity like mouse clicks, Bryan said.

Frequent lawsuits challenging tracking technology can lead corporations to write broader terms of service to try to avoid being sued.

“Since last year, many commercial website operators have taken note of this rise in litigation activity,” Bryan said, “and have reexamined their practices and perhaps buttressed or supplemented their privacy policies accordingly.”



Posted in Market Updates
Aug. 25, 2022

Undersupplied: Here's how many apartment units are being built in Phoenix

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Angela Gonzales

 

Chapin Bell has nearly 2,000 apartment units under or starting construction totaling more than $600 million in development costs.

As these projects come to fruition, the CEO of Scottsdale-based P.B. Bell Cos. continues to scout for land.

"We believe in the strength of the Phoenix market," he said. "We have every expectation it will continue to grow."

Chapin's projects come at a time when the Phoenix market is undersupplied, but an active construction pipeline is moving it closer to equilibrium, said Peter O'Neil, research director for Northmarq.

O'Neil is tracking 28,000 units currently under construction.

"Deliveries in 2021 were about 13,600 units," he said. "This year we're expecting about 14,500 new units coming online."

P.B. Bell Cos. built this $49.5 million community in Mesa. Called The Landing at Fiesta Village, the 220-unit project at 1310 W. Southern Ave. is now leasing.

P.B. Bell Cos. built this $49.5 million community in Mesa. Called The Landing at Fiesta Village, the 220-unit project at 1310 W. Southern Ave. is now leasing.

A new study commissioned by the National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association found that the nation is facing a deficit of 600,000 apartments. The study found that the U.S. needs 4.3 million more apartments by 2035 to address demand as well as affordability.

O'Neil said the best way to track whether the Phoenix market is undersupplied is to look at the area vacancy rate.

"Historically, we've averaged about 6-7% in Phoenix," he said. "For the past two years, we've averaged 4.6%, reaching as low as 4% mid-to late last year. The rate ended the second quarter of this year at 5.4%."

While there's concern nationwide of some markets becoming oversupplied, metro Phoenix isn't at risk — at least in the near term, O'Neil said.

"We were undersupplied for a long time," he said. "From 2011 to 2013, we delivered an average of 2,500 units per year. Then we averaged about 7,700 units from 2014 to 2019."

What it means for investors

Khosro Khaloghli, founder of Irvine, California-based KB Development Co., has been busy buying and selling apartment communities in metro Phoenix.

In February, he paid $193.5 million for the 356-unit Roadrunner on McDowell, then turned around and sold the 288-unit Mountainside apartments for $132.5 million in March. He also had sold the 312-unit Arboretum at South Mountain for $118.25 million last December.

All of those deals were brokered by Cliff David and Steve Gebing, executive managing directors for Institutional Property Advisors, a division of Marcus & Millichap (NYSE: MMI).

Competition for apartments in Phoenix led to 170% sales volume growth and 98% growth in the total number of transactions in 2021, David said.

"As a result of competition, many California-based investors pushed eastward," he said. "The ensuing battle to secure much sought-after multifamily assets in prime submarkets broke sales price records throughout the Valley."

When Khaloghli came to the U.S. in 1964, he didn't speak English and only had $400 in his pocket.

A wrestling scholarship got him into Cal Poy Pomona, where he graduated with a bachelor's degree in urban planning and a master's in business and public administration, and later completed postgraduate studies with a Ph.D. in urban economics.

Khosro Khaloghli, founder of Irvine, California-based KB Development Co.

Enlarge

Khosro Khaloghli, founder of Irvine, California-based KB Development Co.

KB DEVELOPMENT CO.

With more than $1 billion invested in multifamily properties in Arizona, Khaloghli said he isn't stopping any time soon.

"I would love to invest more in Arizona," he said. "I love this place. I'm very optimistic things are going to work out."

Even so, Khaloghli said he's concerned about the rising rental rates.

As rental rates are increased, he said it's important to make sure that landlords don't hurt the tenants in the process.

Rents for a one-bedroom apartment in June were up 17.5% in metro Phoenix compared with this time last year, according to the latest National Rent Report by Zumper.

Phoenix ranked as the 41st most expensive rental market in the nation in June with the median price of a one-bedroom apartment landing at $1,340 and a two-bedroom at $1,680, according to Zumper.

The apartments P.B. Bell Cos. has been building in the Valley range between $1,500 and $2,400 in monthly rents, depending on the number of units and location of the property.

Bell said he's been selling his properties once they stabilize.

 

"We generally sell more than we hold onto," he said. "A lot of that depends on the market. Pricing today for apartments is pretty aggressive. There is a lot of interest for investment in the Phoenix metro area. It's still a seller's market."

Posted in Market Updates
Aug. 25, 2022

Taylor Morrison to build 1,250 homes in Phoenix near Taiwan Semiconductor

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Angela Gonzales

Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (NYSE: TMHC) plans to build 1,250 homes in north Phoenix near the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s $12 billion chip plant under construction.

The Scottsdale-based homebuilder is in escrow to buy 473 acres near Cave Creek Road and Sonoran Desert Drive in north Phoenix, which is about two miles from the TSMC site, said Brad Schoenberg, division president for Taylor Morrison.

He said he expects to close on the deal during the fourth quarter of 2022 or first quarter of 2023. The seller is MacEwan Ranch LLC.

Nate Nathan and David Mullard of Nathan & Associates Inc. are representing Taylor Morrison in the deal, which has been in escrow for the past two years as Taylor Morrison works its way through the zoning process with the city of Phoenix.

Schoenberg said the project was finally rezoned in July, but it still needs to go through design review with the city.

The master-planned community will be called Verdin, where homes will range between 1,700 and 4,000 square feet, he said.

Verdin will only feature for-sale homes, and not a build-to-rent community like those being built in partnership with Mesa-based Christopher Todd Communities in the Valley and throughout the nation.

"As we wind down the year, we'll have invested $160 million in land acquisitions," he said, representing about 2,800 lots in various stages of development.

These land holdings give Schoenberg time to pause on future land buys as the housing market continues to cool amid a lack of consumer confidence.

"We're in a very good place with land holdings," he said. "We have time to see what's going to happen in this market. We're positioned well in Maricopa County. We like our core land holdings."

Even so, he said, he won't turn away a good deal.

"If something comes our way, we will be an opportunistic buyer," Schoenberg said. "We will be very picky and choosy where we go."

Posted in Market Updates
Aug. 19, 2022

Is it a buyer's market yet? Here's how far Phoenix area home prices dropped in July

 

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Angela Gonzales

Valley home prices dropped in July, leaving many homebuyers wondering if a buyer's market is imminent, even in the midst of higher mortgage interest rates.

The monthly average home sales price in July dropped 9.6% compared to the previous month, from $602,586 to $546,403, according to The Cromford Report. The median sale price in July fell 4.8%, from $475,000 to $452,000.

Greg Hague, president of Scottsdale-based 72Sold, blames the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases on the unexpectedly large drop in July home prices.

"Interest rates have almost doubled, making homes significantly less affordable to buyers who need financing, which is most buyers," Hague said.

"It's a shame that in its effort to ameliorate overall inflation in the economy, the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases impacted the housing market so severely," he said. "They should have seen it coming because interest rate fluctuations have a greater impact on the housing market than any other segment of the economy."

More houses on the market

Pointing to The Cromford Report, the Valley has 12,656 single-family homes available on the market, said Keith Burton, Realtor with The Rider Elite Team in Scottsdale.

Mortgage interest rates are sitting below 5%, while inventory levels of both existing and new homes are rising, creating a more balanced market, said Steven Hensley, advisory manager for Zonda housing research firm.

While buyers have more options and are gaining more bargaining power, it's still a seller's market today, Hensley said.

"That could continue to change in the coming months if inventory keeps rising," he said.

Despite lower sales prices, sellers generally have much more equity than they did just a few years ago, Hensley said.

It's also still a seller's market in the luxury sector, said Frank Aazami of Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty.

"Sellers control the transaction," he said. "They can — and have — declined to entertain great offers. In adjusting declining markets, if sellers pass on entertaining fair offers, they'll end up selling/netting less. Those who are carrying a huge cost can hurt their net sheet. That's how short sales became so popular — they held on too long."

But the luxury market is a bit different, where buyers are much more savvy, Aazami said.

"They like and will pay for the trendiest and best-in-design homes," he said. "You can name your price when it's extraordinary and refined."

 

Posted in Market Updates
Aug. 18, 2022

New-home market 'at a crossroads' amid uptick in canceled contracts, incentives

Source: Phoenix Business Journal | Ashley Fahey

 

Homebuilders across the U.S. are shifting their strategies and financial outlooks amid changing consumer demand for housing.

But where the jury is still out is whether the trend toward elevated canceled contracts, more incentives and lower demand for housing is settling out to pre-pandemic levels — when demand for homes was still higher than historic norms — or will continue to worsen.

The nation's publicly traded homebuilders, in earnings calls reporting their most recent quarter's financial performance, are seeing similar trends and patterns across their portfolios as the housing market shifts amid higher interest rates and fears of a recession. The three-month period that ended in June is the first full quarter that illustrates how the housing market is changing for builders, coming off pandemic highs.

The effects are being felt across the country, although some places are feeling it more dramatically than others. Pricey West Coast markets and metro areas that've far outpaced national norms during the pandemic are seeing the sharpest corrections.

In Phoenix, one of nation's hottest pandemic housing markets, the contract cancellation rate through mid-July was in the 30% range. That's up from 8% to 10% in 2020 and 2021, and up from 15% in 2018 and 2019.

Rick Beckwitt, co-CEO and co-president of Miami-based Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), said during a call with investors in late June its Florida markets were among the better performing in the country through that month. Beckwitt identified seven markets where Lennar has had to lower prices and offer more attractive financing options: Raleigh, North Carolina; Austin, Texas; Minnesota; Seattle; and Los Angeles, Sacramento and the Central Valley in California.

Uptick in canceled contracts, incentives

Most homebuilder executives point to June as the first month where an observable slowdown occurred in the broader housing market.

Nationally, about 60,000 of home-purchase agreements fell through in June, or 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month, according to Seattle-based Redfin Corp. (Nasdaq: RDFN). In June 2021, that share was 11.2%.

Arlington, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), the nation's largest builder, said its cancellation rate in its third quarter ending June 30 hit 24%, compared to 17% the same quarter a year prior. The builder's net sales orders in Q3 decreased 7%, to 16,693 homes, and its total net sales order value increased 8% from the prior year, to $6.9 billion.

Atlanta-based PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM) saw 1,152 contracts canceled in the second quarter, a rate of 15%, up from 665 cancellations at the same time last year, or a rate of 7%. Net new orders in Q2 declined 23% on an annual basis, to 6,418 homes, and total net sales order volume was $3.9 billion, a decrease of 8% from the same period last year.

Mike Murray, D.R. Horton executive vice president and co-chief operating officer, said during the builder's July 21 earnings call the company has been able to resell cancellations, but that typically takes from four to 12 weeks because of the mortgage process.

Bill Wheat, D.R. Horton executive vice president and chief financial officer, said the cancellation rate in the builder's Q3 was closer to what the company considers normal, as compared to below-normal ranges through much of the pandemic.

Builder executives say much of what they saw from buyers between early April and late June was a direct response to the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest-rate hike at its May meeting. A more dramatic escalation in mortgage rates occurred around that time.

But even after the Fed's most recent hike in late July, three-quarters of a percent, many housing economists are predicting mortgage rates will start to stabilize. That could give buyers a greater degree of predictability — although affordability will still be tough for many.

"After a two-year boom market unlike any other in history, the new-home market is at a crossroads," said Eric Lipar, chairman and CEO of The Woodlands, Texas-based LGI Homes Inc., during the company's earnings call Tuesday. "From a short-term perspective, homes are more expensive, consumer prices are up and (the) move (to) curb inflation nearly doubled mortgage rates."

Lipar and others pointed to broader underpinnings — including a strong labor market, demographic trends and tight rental supply — as reasons to remain confident in the new-home market.

Still, as buyers adjust to the new elevated interest-rate environment, builders are upping incentives to keep momentum going.

That includes mechanisms such as mortgage interest rate locks and buydowns to buyers, such as what D.R. Horton has been offering. That builder, which focuses much of its business on the price-conscious first-time buyer, is also beginning to offer other sales incentives as necessary on selected homes and inventory, Wheat said.

"As we adjust to current market conditions, we expect the pace of our sales price increases to slow during the fourth quarter and for our incentive levels to increase from historical lows," he added.

Ryan Marshall, president and CEO of Pulte, said during the builder's July 26 earnings call the majority of incentives in the builder's second quarter took the form of longer-term rate locks or rate buydowns. He said many buyers can still afford the price of a new home but some need a little help.

It seems likely, though, incentives will be in play for the foreseeable future, which will certainly factor into home-price growth and a builder's profit margin.

"Depending upon the community, home-price appreciation has slowed, stopped or, through the use of incentives, is taking a couple of steps back," Marshall said. "Through much of the second quarter, incentives were mostly tied to the mortgage, but this is now expanding to include discounts on options and lot premiums.”

Shifts in strategy, spending

In response to slowing buyer demand, and continued elevated costs, builders are assessing how to manage their pipelines in the coming months as the U.S. economic outlook hangs in limbo.

Greater advertising and marketing spending is one tactic being employed by a couple of builders despite a move toward cost-cutting. Lipar said LGI has increased its advertising spending with favorable results. In July, nearly 20,000 people inquired about moving from renting to homeownership, a 54% increase over last year, he added.

"Now's the time to spend more money on marketing," he said.

Pulte executives say they are looking to increase the company's share of speculative homes, an industry term used to describe a move-in-ready home built on speculation that it'll sell easily for a profit. The company will continue to primarily be a build-to-order builder, Marshall said, but changes in market conditions have it pushing its share of spec homes to 30% or higher.

"We'll be starting specs across the spectrum," said Bob O’Shaughnessy, executive vice president and chief financial officer at Pulte, during the builder's earnings call.

D.R. Horton has made headlines for growing its build-to-rent business, a hot segment of the rental market many for-sale builders have waded into in the past couple of years. D.R. Horton in February was projecting to grow its rental operation this fiscal year by $1 billion.

When asked by an analyst whether some of D.R. Horton's land positions could be converted from for-sale to rental housing because of changing conditions, Murray said demand is evaluated in making those kinds of decisions.

"We always thought build-to-rent is a great way to more rapidly monetize land positions without cannibalizing (our) for-sale business because it's a different user of that real estate and different owner of the real estate," he continued. "We certainly have repurposed projects that we originally may have identified three to four years ago (as) for-sale. Today, they're being executed as for-rent, and that process continues."

Posted in Market Updates